Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

THE PRE-WAR QUARTER CENTURY 111 emigrants over immigrants is concurrent with an increase in the number unemployed—then migration is clearly an alleviation rather than a primary direct cause of fluctuations in unemployment in the host country. On the other hand, if the net migration of workers exceeds in number the employment change, or is contrary in direc- tion, it is clearly a disturbing factor. Net migration is obviously the most significant basis for volume comparisons; but, particularly where emigration is not known, the volume of arrivals is important as indicating the magnitude of the absorption task as compared with the current tendencies in employment. Even if the number of arriving immigrants is balanced by an equal number of departing emigrants, it is scarcely to be assumed that the necessary employment adjustments are made without considerable loss of time to the worker and disturbance to industry. But over what period shall the change in employment and mi- gration be compared? A week, a month, a quarter year, a year, a decade, the period of decline in employment, or the duration of a depression? The answer will depend upon the particular purpose to be served. If the purpose is to show the adjustment of migration to seasonal variations in employment, or to the combined effects of cyclical, seasonal, and other forces, a month-to-month comparison may be pertinent. If it is desired to eliminate in part the erratic month-to-month fluctuations, and yet to restrict the analysis to the effect of relatively current immigration, a three-month comparison is appropriate. If from January to March, inclusive, employment falls off 50,000, and 100,000 working immigrants arrive, it is obvious that their arrival is not well timed and apt to aggravate the unem- ployment situation. To eliminate seasonal factors, comparisons over twelve-month periods are suitable. In considering a given depression period, it would appear worth while to ascertain the cumulative volume of migration either during the period of decline, or, to change the point of view somewhat, during the depression period—defined herein, ordinarily, as the period during which employment is below its computed trend. It would be somewhat unduly dogmatic to insist that any one of the bases of comparison just mentioned is, in all cases, the most logical. It is worth noting what results are obtained from the use of each of them, and con- sequently, in the various volume comparisons in this chapter, no invariable basis of cumulation has been adhered to. Accordingly,

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