Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

THE PRE-WAR QUARTER CENTURY Net Male Immigration. Male emigration statistics are available beginning with January, 1910. Beginning in December, 1910, the vertical bars in Chart 20 show, for each twelve-month period ending with the given month, the excess of arriving over departing male aliens (including both permanent and temporary migrants), hereinafter referred to as net alien male arrivals. What conclusions can be drawn from the facts shown in Chart 20 concerning the volume relation between unemployment and migration? In the first place, gross male immigration, disregarding emigration, ordinarily numbered several hundred thousand each twelve months, even in periods like 1911 when unemployment was increasing, and hence represents a volume of immigration which, if not offset by emigration, is large enough to materially aggravate the unemploy- ment situation. Secondly, the net arrivals of alien males, cumulated over twelve- month periods, show always an excess of arrivals over departures, even in 1911 when the twelve-month change in unemployment shows increases in the numbers unemployed; that is, in each of the twelve-month periods in which unemployment had increased and data on net arrivals are available, migration was evidently ag- gravating the situation by adding to the number of available workers. Lastly, in other twelve-month periods, unemployment is de- creasing while there is a net excess of arrivals, and in these periods it may be that immigration should be looked upon as increasing in response to an increasing demand for labor. For example, for the twelve-month periods ending in the latter part of 1912 and the early part of 1913, a substantial net immigration is accompanied by a decrease in unemployment. With this preliminary consideration of the relative volume of unemployment and immigration for the years 1903 to 1914 in mind, let us now return to a consideration of the conditions existing during selected depression periods, beginning with that of 1908. Depression of 1908. The depression of 1908 affords the first opportunity for a close study of the net movement of migration during a business cycle, inasmuch as the publication of emigration statistics by months 113

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