Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

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Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

THE PRE-WAR QUARTER CENTURY 1 major conclusions reached in the chapter may be summarized as follows: Sensitiveness of Migration to Business Conditions. 1. A comparison of data pertaining to male immigration, pig iron production, and factory employment, in the pre-war period, reveals the fact that cyclical fluctuations in male immigration are ordinarily associated with prior changes, in the same direction, in production and employment. Inasmuch as good employment conditions would presumably encourage the prospective immigrant and also increase the instances in which friends and relatives in this country would remit funds for the journey, we may reasonably assume that the observed close relation is not a mere coincidence but that business conditions are in fact a dominating determinant of cyclical fluctuations in im- migration. 2. The influence of a major cyclical change in industrial con- ditions is usually apparent in immigration within less than a half year. 3. The cyclical movements in emigration are inversely correlated with those of immigration and employment, with large emigration in depression periods and relatively small emigration in boom periods. 4. The fluctuations of net immigration exhibit a high degree of sensitiveness to employment conditions in the United States. This is evident when immigration and emigration are jointly considered, either in terms of the ratio of emigration to immigration, or in terms of the numerical excess of arrivals over departures or of departures over arrivals. Relative Volume of Migration and Changes in Employment. When we turned from a consideration of the direction and timing of turns in the cycles of immigration and emigration to the some- what more concrete problem of the relation between the volume of immigration, gross or net, expressed in number of persons, and the concurrent change in the number employed or unemployed, we found, partly because of the diversity of the possible bases of comparison, a somewhat less secure basis upon which to form un- equivocal conclusions. For example, the conclusions reached in comparing cumulative immigration with the change in employment or unemployment are materially affected by the length of the period 27

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