Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VI. The war and post-war period

Collection:: Economics Books

THE WAR AND POST-WAR PERIOD : On the return of transportation to something akin to normal conditions, thousands of foreign-born residents of the United States who had been forced by war conditions to postpone a trip to their former home sailed for Europe. Among these were many returning because of changed political conditions. For example, in the three fiscal years 1920, 1921, and 1922, the emigrant aliens destined to reconstituted Poland numbered over 90,000, most of them of the Polish race. Obviously, the emigration movements of the early post-war period, at least, need close analysis for other influences before the role played by economic conditions in this country can be as- certained. Tardy Recovery of Immigration. Immigration, likewise, was somewhat slow to recover, not quite reaching the two hundred and fifty thousand mark in 1919 (calendar year). The incoming movement, however, exhibited a growing momentum and reached a total of over seven hundred thousand in the calendar year 1920, not including nonimmigrants: and even in 1921, despite industrial depression, did not drop below 50,000 per month until June, 1921, by which time the three per centum quota law had gone into effect. This law was apparently due, in part at least, to the fear that the volume of immigration in 1920 was but an indication of the growing momentum of a flood of immigrants which had been dammed up by war conditions and which now, spurred by actual or impending economic and political chaos in Europe, threatened to inundate this country with an unprecedented volume of aliens. Whatever the facts may be concerning the probability of the expected inundation, steps were taken in the law of May, 1921, which make the disentanglement of the economic trends in the subsequent period more than usually difficult. Because the quotas began to be available in July, and twenty per cent of the quota of any country could be admitted in a single month, the law has tended to concentrate the arrivals in the second half of the calendar year, thus creating a seasonal movement materially different from that characteristic of the pre-war period, and obscuring the effects of industrial prosperity and depression except for those countries which were obviously falling short of the quota or, like Canada and Mexico, were not subject to the law. 125

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