Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VI. The war and post-war period

Collection:: Economics Books

THE WAR AND POST-WAR PERIOD 150 The depression of 1911, the long decline just before and in the early part of the war, the low ebb during the war, the recovery beginning in 1919 and gaining momentum in 1920, the sharp decline in 1921, and the subsequent recovery in 1923, modified doubtless by the quota restrictions—all show up clearly on this chart. Chart 23 furnishes the general picture of the war and post-war period. The details of the movement of migration from 1919 to 1923 are set forth more clearly in subsequent paragraphs. TABLE 30.—CyCLES IN MALE IMMIGRATION: 1910-1024» Three-month moving average of index corrected for seasonal variation: 1910= 100 YEAR Jan. | Fes. | Max, APR. | May| JUNE | Jovy | Ava. SEPT. | Ocr. Nov. Dec. 1910 109.1/115.0/110. 5 107.1 96.8 193.5 96.8] 97.3| 96.9. 93.2 5.9 84.0 19115 475.4) 70.5 68.0 465.3) 61.1 57.4 57.4] 59.7| 63.3 67.0) 73.4] 76.9 1912 77.0|.74.9| 71.9; 73.0] 73.9 82.9] 95.4/110.6(119.2 121.5116.5/107.7 1913. 99.9| 89.8 90.1] 90.1{118.7) 147.2(174.7|174.3|163.1 147.1/136.7/116.9 1914 97.9[179.2| 77.9] 76.5] 69.0, 61.9] 54.1| 46.8] 35.6, 30.4 28.3 27.8 1915 24.3(120.0[ 15.3] _14.2| 15.8" 14 5l.2%S od 1 96 9 27.1 26.7] 29.3 1916 32.1 30.5 25.5) 19.4] 20.4] 120 «0 & 20 38.00 39.239.1 43.0 1917 38.4] 28.7| 16.6] '10.0| 9.1 1 1 £68 7.9, 7.8 8.6 1918 9.6/ 8.2 6.4 6.1 8.4 10.2 10.3 11.7 13.9 1919° 16.2 14.7/.12.0/ . f9.6| 11.1] 11 2.0 ,26.6127.8"33.3| 41.4 19201 1146.5(41.6| 33.5 29.7['37.3 £1.81 82.2 89.2 99.9 1921 98.3| 77.6 19.7] 35.6 32.40 1 18.6 19.0| 19.9 1922. 19.1//18.0| 17.4" 20.1] 23.8 32.3 33.3 35.7 1023 43.5 53.2('6 © 66.1 640 ; 62.3 62.6 5 3 19245 1°55. 5051.0|_ 45" 6] 43.7142 0) a sComputed from the data in Table II, Appendix. bFor the period subsequent to April, 1921, a special computation of the typical seasonal variation was made to allow for the change in the seasonal movement caused by the quota limit law. Employment and Production Data in Post-War Period. We have just noted that only certain elements in the migratory movement since the war have escaped material modification by non-economic forces. However, the statistical data concerning industrial conditions available for comparison are more nearly adequate than in any previous period. The years since the war have witnessed unusual activity in statistical compilation and analysis. New index numbers of employment, production, and the volume of trade have been developed; and while some of these have been extended back into earlier years, the data are most adequate for the period beginning with 1919. Also, we have in this period one severe depression period, affording an interesting basis for com- parison with migratory movements. 27

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