Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VI. The war and post-war period

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES States from Canada, adjusted to eliminate the influence of typical seasonal variation, are compared with employment conditions in the United States and Canada, respectively. Employment con- ditions in Canada are represented by the percentage of un- employment among trade union members (with the signs reversed so that severe unemployment is represented by a depression in the curve and vice versa). Employment in the United States is re- presented by the ‘labor market” index previously described. The major depression of 1921 and the lesser decline in 1923 are common to employment in both countries. Both are above average in 1919 and the first half of 1920, begin to decline in 1920 to a low point in 1921, with a recovery beginning in 1921 and continuing through 1922 and part of 1923, followed by a moderate decline. In 1920, the downturn in employment came about three months Jater in Canada than it did in the United States. To summarize, in the years from 1919 to 1922, inclusive, im- migration from Canada tended to be greatest when employment was good in both countries and to be low when employment was at a minimum. For Canada in these years, it would appear that it is good prospects in the country receiving the immigration, rather than distress in the home country of the prospective immigrant, which cause cyclical fluctuations in immigration. However, the upward movement of Canadian immigration in 1923 is not con- sistent with this principle, inasmuch as employment in the United States evidences a cyclical decline subsequent to April of that year. In Chapter VIII, we return to this problem of the relative influence of conditions in the country of immigration and the country of emigration. CHAPTER SUMMARY Fluctuations in migration in the war and post-war periods are dominated by non-economic influences to a much larger extent than in the pre-war period. Nevertheless when the effect of the economic factors has been as far as possible isolated, we find in the post-war period much the same relation between employment and migration as in the pre-war years. An increase in employment is reflected, somewhat later, in an increase in immigration and a de- crease in emigration. 136

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