Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VIII. The influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration

Collection:: Economics Books

v MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES The index for Italy conforms reasonably well to the above des- cribed general tendencies, with the exception that the decline in the seventies is interrupted by a sharp recovery in 1876, and the movement of the Italian index through the eighties and the early nineties conflicts in some years with the direction of movement of the indices for the United States, Great Britain, and Germany, and is on the whole more erratic. Whether these differences are chiefly due to significant peculiarities in the economic conditions of Italy or are merely the result of the less adequate basis for the Italian index, may be open to question. Since the late nineties, the index for Italy also conforms approximately to the movements which have been mentioned as common to the other three. The emphasis in the above paragraphs on similarities in the major swings of business conditions in the United States, Great Britain and Germany, should not be interpreted as implying that there are not many minor differences. To illustrate, in the eighties the low tide of activity is reached in the United States in 1885 but not until 1886 in Great Britain and Germany; in 1892 a rise is evidenced in the United States, while activity is declining in Ger- many and Great Britain; the decline of 1896 is peculiar to the United States; the reaction in 1901 is slighter in the United States than in the other two countries; in 1902, depression is deepening in Germany while a considerable improvement is shown in the United States; and in 1911, a mild depression is evidenced in the United States but not in Germany or Great Britain. More con- sideration will be given to these differences in subsequent paragraphs when making a comparison of economic conditions and emigration from each country separately considered. On the whole, however, the degree of similarity illustrated in Chart 40 indicates that in- asmuch as the major swings in immigration to the United States coincide with the major cycles in industrial conditions in the United States, as has been pointed out in previous chapters, it follows that the upward swings in the cycles of emigration to the United States, must, in general, occur in periods of relative prosperity in the European countries of emigration. It remains to test this tentative conclusion by closer examination of the fluctuations in migration from the several important countries. Selected Countries. In the preceding pages we have noted the outstanding differences in the flow of migration from various countries to the United States 76

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