Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VIII. The influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration

Collection:: Economics Books

INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 181 emigration; but where conditions in the two countries are not similar, the emigration movement appears to agree somewhat better with the index for the United States than with that for the United Kingdom. These instances where the migration movement differs from one business cycle curve but agrees with the other are of special interest. The beginning of recovery in emigration in the late seventies and in 1886 agrees best with the concurrent changes in the index for the United States. Also, in the years 1888 and 1889, and in 1894 and 1896, the emigration curve and the United States composite, but not the British composite, decline. On the other hand, the decline in the emigration movement in 1901 and 1902 can be explained more plausibly by reference to economic conditions in Great Britain than to those in the United States, for 1902 is a boom year in the latter country. The emigration boom in 1904 coincides with depression in both countries. The recovery in emigration in 1909, despite the continuance of depression in the United Kingdom, evidences the effect of industrial recovery in the United States. The tentative conclusion upon the basis of the evidence presented in Chart 41 is, that the general movements in economic conditions in the United States and the United Kingdom are similar, and that prosperity in the two countries ordinarily means higher emigration from the United Kingdom to the United States; depression, lower emigration. When, as not infrequently happens, the cyclical changes in the United Kingdom come somewhat tardily as compared with the similar movements in the United States, the movement in emigration usually agrees more closely with the ups and downs of industry in the latter country. The emigration decline of 1902 and the boom of 1904 are not, however, consistent with this explanation. It may be suggested that by allowing a lag of one or two years we may find a good correspondence between depression in Great Britain and emigration therefrom. But upon examination of the curves for such possible relations, we find that with a one year lag attributed to emigration there is no consistent agreement, either direct or inverse, between British business conditions and emigration. With a two-year lag there is a moderate degree of inverse correlation, that is, a tendency for poor business conditions in Great Britain to be followed two years later by increased emigration to the United States, and for good conditions to be followed by decreased emigra- tion. However, for the period as a whole, this agreement is not as close as that found between concurrent conditions of prosperity

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