Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VIII. The influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES than the United States. A complete analysis of cyclical fluctuations in British emigration would, consequently, involve a thorough study of business cycles in all the countries to which large numbers of British emigrants are attracted. This is a task we have not undertaken. However, even without an examination of economic conditions in the countries of destination, wefcan profitably compare the fluctuations in emigration to these ‘other countries” and to the United States. If these two streams of emigration fluctuate in close accord, it would be reasonable to conclude that the cyclical changes in employment opportunity in the United States and other host countries are essentially similar, or, as an alternative explanation, that conditions in the country of emigration are the dominating factor. On the other hand, if marked differences appear in the fluctuations of emigration to the United States and to ‘“‘other countries’ some weight is added to the other evidence tending to show that conditions in the home country of the emigrant are not the predominant influence in determining when his departure takes place. In fact, the cycles in emigration from the United Kingdom to countries other than the United States show many dissimilarities to the cycles of emigration to the United States, indicating that these two movements are not clearly dominated by conditions in the United Kingdom or they would evidence more similarity. On the whole, the cycles of ‘other emigration” agree less closely with business conditions in the United Kingdom than do the cycles of emigration to the United States.u In a few instances the relation between these two emigration movements is not readily explained by conditions in the United States. For example, in 1902 a boom in the United States was accompanied by declining emigration to the United States and increasing emigration to other countries; and in 1904 depression in the United States was accompanied by increasing British emigration thereto and declining emigration to other countries. As a rule, in those years in which the direction of change in the business cycle curve in the United States is dissimilar to that in Great Britain, the cyclical fluctuations in emigration to the United States agree, in direction of movement, with the business cycle in the United This conclusion is based upon the analysis of graphs of the cycles in emigration and business conditions, not reproduced here, supplemented with mathematical computation of the Pearsonian coefficients of correlation, which are 4.22 + .10 for concurrent items in “other emigration” and British business conditions, and + .42 + .08 for emigration to the United States and British conditions. 186

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