Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VIII. The influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES dicated by the industrial composites previously described, show a substantial degree of similarity. A tendency appears for the turns in the German curve to occur one year later than the corresponding changes in the United States composite. For example, the changes in direction which occurred in the United States composite in 1873, 1879, 1883, 1886, and 1909 are comparable with the changes in the (German curve in 1874, 1880, 1884, 1887, and 1910, respectively. However, in the early nineties and again in the early part of the following decade, the decline toward depression becomes pronounced sooner in Germany than in the United States. The German industrial composite exhibits some noteworthy dif- ferences from the United States composite. In 1892 economic ac- tivity diminished in Germany but increased in the United States; and in 1896, diminished in the United States but not in Germany. Conditions in Germany took a turn for the worse in 1901 and 1902 but improved in 1903; while industrial activity in the United States declined only slightly in 1901, improved in 1902" and declined in 1903. Again, in 1911 Germany experienced an industrial improve- ment while in the United States there was a mild depression, and the German boom in 1912 and 1913 was more pronounced than that in the United States. In both countries there was a decline in 1904, then a rise in 1907, and a decline in 1908.13 Emigration from Germany and Business Conditions. In Chart 43 we have a comparison of the cycles of emigration from Germany, first (Fig. A) with business cycles in Germany, and, secondly, (Fig. B) with business cycles in the United States. Gen- erally speaking, high emigration corresponds with the prosperity phase of the business cycle both in Germany and in the United States, and low emigration with depression in both countries. Where the movements are not concurrent, there is some evidence of a tendency for emigration to anticipate changes in conditions in Germany, as in the changes in emigration in 1873, 1882, and 1909; whereas changes in emigration are usually concurrent with cyclical 12See Chart 40, p. 174. BThe coefficient of correlation between the composites is 4.35 £.09 if con- current items are compared, or +.31 + .09 if a one-year lag is assigned to the industrial composite for Germany. ; 4The coefficients of correlation, for concurrent items, are +.40 +.09 for German industrial conditions and emigration from Germany to the United States, and -+.54 + .07 for such emigration and industrial conditions in the United States. If a one-year lag is assigned to emigration, the coefficients are +-.17 + .10 with German industrial conditions, and 4.52 + .08 with conditions in the United States. 188%

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