Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VIII. The influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES pared the general tenor of crop reports with the current volume of emigration, and also with the changes in emigration in the following year, inasmuch as the effect of crop failures, if any, would not, in many cases, be fully effective upon emigration until the succeeding year. We find no close or consistent relationship between harvests and emigration. Poor crop years are sometimes years of low, sometimes of high, emigration. They are sometimes followed by increased emigration, but almost equally often by decreased emi- gration. Similarly, years of excellent crops are sometimes accom- panied or immediately followed by rising emigration, in other years by declining emigration. To illustrate, poor crops in 1873 are followed, in the succeeding year, by a sharp cyclical drop in emigration, in 1874 by a mild drop, in 1880 by a sharp rise, in 1881 by a drop, in 1886, 1889, and 1891, by a moderate rise. Likewise, in about fifty per cent of the cases in which good or excellent crops are reported, the cyclical change in emigration in the following year is a decrease; in the other fifty per cent, an increase. IMMIGRATION FROM ITALY The flow of immigration from Italy to the United States from 1870 to 1914 was characterized by a pronounced upward trend, both in actual numbers and in proportion to the total immigration to this country. In fact, in recent decades Italy has become the largest single contributor to the stream of immigrants entering the United States. In the twenty-four years ending June 30, 1924, about three and one half million immigrants designated Italy as their country of origin or of last permanent residence. A large proportion of these, however, subsequently returned to their native land. The immigration movement from Italy has also been characterized by a strong cyclical movement, which fact suggests the special desirabil- ity of a comparison between it and cycles in economic activity in the United States and Italy. Business Cycles in Italy and the United States (Chart 41) We have previously noted, in comparing business cycles in the United States with those in important European countries, that the cycles in Italy, either because of the less adequate information 8See Chart 43. 158ee Charts 33 and 35, in the early part of this chapter. 196

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