Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VIII. The influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration

Collection:: Economics Books

INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 203 The general conclusion would appear to be that immigration from Italy to the United States exhibits a better agreement with pig iron production in the United States than it does with crop values in Italy. It remains to test this assumption by other methods of approach. Fluctuations in Immigration Peculiar to Italy. In addition to the above comparison between the statistical evidences of fluctuations in crop values, pig iron production, and immigration from Italy, an examination was made of the unique movements in immigration from Italy; for it appears plausible that further knowledge of the influences which account for fluctua- tions in Italian migration may be obtained by examining the ecir- cumstances surrounding marked changes in the ratio of immigration from Italy to total immigration. We have had occasion to note the fluctuations in this ratio (See Chart 35 and Table 45), and also the fluctuations in the actual numbers from Italy (Chart 33 and Table 44). These two sets of fluctuations are frequently similar. In eleven years in the two decades ending in 1914, an increase in actual numbers of immigrants from Italy results in an increase in the fraction of total immigration which arrived from that country, indicating that there has not been an equivalent change in the other elements in the immigrant stream. However, there are also several instances, such as 1902 and 1903, where a substantial change in the number of immigrants brings no equivalent change in the ratio to total immigration. Comparisons with Crop Conditions. A comparison of the marked changes in the ratio of immigrants arriving from Italy to total immigration with descriptive statements of crop conditions* prevailing in the preceding calendar year reveals a slight tendency for a relative increase in this ratio to be preceded by somewhat poorer crops than the years in which there is a relative decline in immigration. In the five years ending June 30, 1892, 1904, 1907, 1908, and 1910, this ratio declined one tenth or more from the ratio of the preceding year. In the years ending the pre- ceding December crops are reported as excellent in one, good in two, and fair in two. On the other hand, in seven years (1891, 1893, 1896, 1897, 1906, 1909, and 1913) in which the ratio increased #Based, not on our index of aggregate values of leading crops, but on descriptive statements of erop conditions compiled by Dr. W. L. Thorp.

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