Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS 211 subsequent years, the war, the abnormal situation in transport immediately following the war, and the influence of the quota act, have distorted the seasonal movement from any close resemblance to that exhibited prior to the war. Consequently, it has seemed expedient to base the computation of the normal seasonal, in most instances, upon the pre-war years, despite the fact that for many series data are available for only five pre-war years (beginning Jan. 1, 1909). Method. For the longer series, such as male immigrants, beginning in 1893, the typical seasonal has been obtained by adding and averaging like months (e. g. all the Januarys) and adjusting the results for any upward or downward bias ascribable to a trend in the data. The adjusted results were then translated into percentages of their mean, giving twelve seasonal indices or type numbers. In some cases, particularly for shorter series where the seasonal indices were to be used in isolating the cyclical movement, they have been computed by somewhat more refined methods, principally by the link-relative method developed by Professor Warren M. Persons or by finding the typical percentage deviation from a trend- cycle curve obtained by computing a twelve-month moving average and adjusting this average to make it represent our best estimate of the course of the cycle and trend. Quota-Period Seasonals. With the exception of certain classes of arrivals who are not counted against the quotas, the immigration law of 1921 limited the number of aliens of any nationality who might be admitted in any one year to three per cent of the foreign-born persons of such nationality resident in the United States as shown by the Census of 1910, and permitted a maximum of twenty per cent of the annual quota for any nationality to be admitted in any one month. The new quotas begin to be available on July 1st of each year, hence this law has tended to concentrate arrivals in July and the four following months. It was, therefore, necessary to make a special computation of the typical seasonal variation for the period since the quota law went into effect. This computation was based upon immigration data for the period from July, 1921, to June, 1924, inclusive. Such a short period, of course, does not give a clearly adequate basis for estimating the typical seasonal movement under

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