Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

Hi MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES The differences in the seasonal tendencies of male and female immigration are indicated in Chart 48. The four curves represent male immigrants, male nonimmigrants, female immigrants, and female nonimmigrants, respectively, for each of the five years from 1909 to 1913, plotted on a ratio scale so that equal percentage changes are represented by equal vertical changes. Only the shape of these curves and not the position of a curve on the chart is significant. Each of the four series shows a decidedly regular and characteristic seasonal fluctuation throughout this five-year period. The spring peak is marked for the male series, both im- migrant and nonimmigrant; but the fall peak is almost as large as the spring peak for the female immigrant series, and is decidedly higher for the female nonimmigrant series. As would be expected, it is evident from these curves that the immigration of women, particularly of the nonimmigrant group, is less affected than is male immigration by the inducements which create the spring peak in the incoming movement, including the desire to be on hand for the summer boom in employment which, as we shall see presently, occurs particularly in outdoor employment. To facilitate comparison with other series, two sets of indices of seasonal fluctuations in male immigration have been computed. One of these is based upon data for the period from 1893 to 1913, inclusive (see Table 58 and Chart 54). The second computation, based upon data for the period from January, 1909, to June, 1914 (Table 53 and Chart 49), was prepared for use in comparisons with other elements in migration for which statistics are available only during a few years prior to the war. The seasonal movements in- dicated by these two computations are, in general, similar. The spring peak is somewhat less pronounced when only the shorter period is considered; but whether the shorter or the longer period from 1893 to 1913 are used, male immigration exhibits a seasonal variation with a low point in mid-winter (January) and a slight rise in February, followed in March, April, and May by three months of very large immigration. After May, the movement declines rapidly and remains low through the balance of the year with a moderate recovery in the early fall. Various noteworthy differences among the seasonal movements of the several classes of arrivals are illustrated in Chart 49. Citizens and Aliens. The three curves in Fig. A, of Chart 49, represent, respectively, returning citizens of the United States, alien immigrants, and alien 214

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