Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS nN satisfactorily determining the trend, we have made no attempt to adjust for the growth factor in presenting the statistics of seasonal fluctuations in net migration. We have noted the characteristic features of the seasonal move- ment in the main migratory currents to and from the United States before restrictive legislation intervened to modify the seasonal dis- tribution; let us now note the corresponding seasonal movements in the major occupations in which immigrants engage. SEASONAL TENDENCIES IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES The great bulk of newly arrived immigrants, as we have previously noted, are engaged in manufacturing, coal mining, construction, and railway maintenance; hence it becomes desirable to examine the seasonal fluctuations in employment in these industries, in order that we may determine whether the seasonal variations we have observed in migration synchronize closely with changes in employ- ment. The data available for measuring seasonal variation in these several industries are so fragmentary and diverse in nature, that we feel impelled to give first some explanation of the nature and limitations of the evidence from which our indices are constructed. We then proceed to a comparison of these seasonal employment indices with the corresponding indices for migration. The evidence considered in arriving at our estimates for the several industries is shown in Charts 52 and 53; and the numerical indices are given in the accompanying tables. The final estimates for comparison with fluctuations in migration appear in Charts 54 and 55. In comparing these charts, the reader should note that the scales used in plotting have been varied so as to magnify the fluctuations for some series, such as factory employment, so that the changes will stand out more clearly. Factory Employment (Chart 52, Fig. A). In the process of testing for typical seasonal variation in factory employment, we computed two indices, both of which appear in Chart 52, Fig. A. The first, Curve (a), is based upon our estimates of factory employment in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. The second, Curve (b), is based upon the Census of Manu- factures statistics of factory employment in the United States in the census years 1904, 1909, 1914, 1919, and 1921, and upon the g. 7

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