Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

245 MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES Using the same method of weighting, the indices for all the in- dustries under consideration—that is, factory employment, bitu- minous and anthracite coal mining, railway maintenance, and construction, have been combined into an index of seasonal fluctua- tions in ‘‘all selected industries” (Curve ‘“‘g” of Fig. D, Chart 54). Limitations. Before proceeding further, it may be well to summarize the limitations of these indices of seasonal variation. In the first place, the object in mind has been to obtain evidence of seasonal fluctua- tions which may be applied to the years immediately preceding the Great War, since the indices of seasonal variation in migration are computed chiefly from data for these years. It has been necessary, however, to utilize some employment data applying to more recent years. Furthermore, these evidences of employment conditions have in some instances been fragmentary and indirect. While care has been taken to make the indices as representative of the actual conditions as possible, and we have no reason to believe that they are inaccurate in material respects, yet the existence of a con- siderable margin of possible error must be recognized. A further source of possible misinterpretation of the significance of seasonal fluctuations in employment lies in the inadequacy of the available information concerning the extent of dovetailing of employment in various industries. When industries are separately considered, the aggregate account of seasonal fluctuation may be magnified by the failure to take into account that workers may shift from one industry to the other when periods of activity do not coincide. On the other hand, the consolidation of data for several industries may create the impression of a more uniform seasonal distribution of employment than actually exists for most workers. It is obvious from the data which we have been examining that factory employment is declining in midsummer while activity in the outdoor industries is increasing; but, unless idle factory workers shift readily to outdoor industries, a consolidation of the data for all the important industries may convey an exaggerated impression of the degree of seasonal regularity in employment. While such an index is useful for present purposes, it is not an adequate measure of the variation in employment for individual workers or groups of workers. We have analyzed separately the seasonal fluctuations, first in migration, then in employment. We may now turn to a direct comparison of the degree of similarity in these seasonal movements.

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