Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS ol ployment is diminishing; also the high level in November and December corresponds with declining factory activity. Coal Mining (Fig. B, Chart 54). The low point in bituminous coal mining comes in the second quarter of the year, at the period when immigration is greatest, and the peak does not occur until some six months later; hence the spring rush of immigrants is premature if their destination is the bituminous coal mines. The fluctuations in immigration are somewhat better timed for anthracite coal mining, as the peak of activity in this industry is reached after, rather than before, the high tide of arrivals. In both types of mining, a decline occurs in November and December, coincident with increasing emigration and declining immigration. Selected Outdoor Industries (Fig. C, Chart 54). The seasonal fluctuations in immigration are well timed for em- ployment in the outdoor industries. The number of immigrants is small in the stagnant months of December, January, and February, increases with the spring rise in outdoor work, and reaches a peak early enough to make it possible for the bulk of newly arrived im- migrants to participate in outdoor work throughout the extent of the summer boom. Then, as outdoor employment declines rapidly in the closing months of the year, the tide of emigration swells rapidly and the volume of immigration recedes. All Selected Industries (Fig. D, Chart 54). In general, the composite seasonal movement of employment in all the selected industries exhibits the same features as the index for outdoor industries, hence the comments just made for the outdoor industries can be applied to the combined seasonal fluctuations in employment in the entire group of industries under consideration. The heaviest immigration is when employment is increasing and somewhat in advance of the maximum in employment activity, and the decline in immigration and the increase in emigration at the close of the year coincides with the falling off of employment. THE NET VOLUME OF ARRIVALS LESS DEPARTURES AND THE MONTH-TO-MONTH CHANGES IN THE NUMBER EMPLOYED So far in this chapter we have been comparing the seasonal changes in employment and pre-war migration with reference to the time of year at which increases or decreases take place. There 2:2

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