Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

2:2 MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES has been nothing in these comparisons to indicate how the volume of immigration or of emigration compares in number of persons with the corresponding change in the number of persons employe d To the extent that migrants are members of the working class, the number of arrivals less the number of departures represents a net addition to the number of workers seeking employment. Unless this net addition is accompanied by an incifease in the number of persons employed, the necessary result is an increase in the total number of unemployed persons in the United States. If, in a given month, the immigration of workers exceeds the emigration of workers by 50,000, and the increase in the number of employed in the United States is only 30,000, it is obvious that there has been a net increase of 20,000 in the number of the unemployed. Fully satisfactory data for making comparisons of seasonal net migration and changes in employment are not available, but we have made the best approximation we could, in the following manner. In the first place, for the several industries which have been selected, for reasons previously indicated, as particularly significant when studying employment opportunities for immigrants, we have computed an estimate of the typical number of persons employed in each month of the year in the pre-war period. Statis- tics for the year 1909 were used in determining the average number of workers to be assigned to each industry. This computation yields an estimate of the typical month-to-month change in the number employed in factories, bituminous and anthracite coal mining, railway track maintenance, and construction work, when the cyclical tendencies have been as far as practicable eliminated, leaving the joint effect of the trend and seasonal factors. Inasmuch as the typical net migration, by months, represents a corresponding in- crease or decrease in population, it is appropriate to compare therewith the typical change in employment which results from the combined influence of the growth and seasonal elements. The results of the employment estimates appear in Table 59 and Chart 55. For the net migration to be used in comparison with the typical month-to-month change in employment, we have selected the excess of arriving over the number of departing male aliens. This group includes those male aliens who are officially classified as temporary migrants—that is, as nonimmigrants or nonemigrants. Many of these come for employment purposes, and hence it ap- 3 2

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