Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS 35 tember, the increase in employment exceeds the net volume of male arrivals. In October and November a decrease in employment is accompanied by a small net immigration, and in December a heavy decrease in employment is accompanied by a small excess of de- parting over arriving male aliens. In other words, decreasing employment in January and November is aggravated by a small net excess of arrivals, and in October by net arrivals to the number of about 32,000. Also, in April, July, and September, the increase in employment is not sufficient to absorb the new arrivals. Only in December, and then only to a small extent, is the slack created by a decrease in employment taken up in part by a net outgo of male aliens. It is true that in five months—February, March, May, June, and August—the number of workers employed is increasing faster than the net inflow of male aliens, and if there chances to be a shortage of resident workers in these months, immigration may be looked upon as alleviating this shortage. On the other hand, if in these months the increase in employment is in fact not adequate to relieve an existing unemployment situation, then the net inflow of alien wor- kers merely acts to check the decrease in unemployment. In summarizing the above comparison of the typical net move- ment of alien males with the month-to-month change in employment ascribed to the growth and seasonal factors, it should be noted that the evidence presented should at best be taken as suggestive rather than conclusive. The data upon which the estimates are based are too fragmentary, and the margin of error involved in the computa- tions too large, to justify treating the computed relations as more than rough approximations. Here, as in the greater part of this chapter, we are dealing with pre-war, and hence pre-restriction, conditions. With the above qualifications in mind, we may summarize the evidence presented in Chart 55 and the accompanying tables as indicating that the seasonal distribution of male immigration and emigration is such as to aggravate unemployment in six months of the year and to alleviate it slightly in one. In the other five months, being those in which net male immigration is less than the increase in employment, its effect is to alleviate the effects of a shortage of resident workers, if such a shortage exists. In Fig. B of Chart 55, a comparison similar to that just made for 24

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