Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

25% MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES “all selected” industries is presented for ‘selected outdoor” in- dustries. Not all of net male migration, of course, goes into these industries, but large numbers of the recent immigrants are employed therein, particularly in pick and shovel work. Using the same method of interpretation applied to “all selected” industries, and assuming, for purposes of comparison, that the entire volume of net migration is absorbed irl these outdoor indus- tries, it would appear that in December a small excess in departures probably lessens slightly a tendency toward increasing unemploy- ment; in six months—March to August, inclusive—the increase in employment 1s greater than the net number of male arrivals and hence male migration in these months is either alleviating a shortage of labor, or if such shortage does not exist, is merely slowing up the decrease in unemployment which would otherwise arise from in- creasing activity in these outdoor industries. In February the number of net arrivals is greater than the increase in employment; and in four months—January, September, October, and November— employment is decreasing while arrivals exceed departures, though in January and November the excess of arrivals is not enough to be of appreciable significance. On the whole, the evidence favors the conclusion that in the months from March to August, inclusive, the seasonal distribution of net male arrivals is well adjusted to the changes in employment due to activities in construction and railway maintenance; that in January, November, and December the net movement is too small to be of great significance; and that in February, September, and October the new arrivals must look largely to other industries for employment. SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN IMMIGRATION UNDER THE QUOTA ACTS The preceding discussion has referred, in the main, to the relation between the seasonal movements in migration and employment prior to the Great War. The quota acts of 1921 and 1924 caused material modifications in the seasonal distribution of immigration. The act of 1921 permitted up to twenty per cent of the annual quota to enter in any one month. As the immigration year begins July 1st, the effect of this provision was to concentrate the heaviest immigration in the months from July to November, inclusive. In the first year of the operation of the act, beginning July 1, 1921, 30

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