Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS 7 54.9 per cent of the total number of male immigrants arrived in these five months, July to November; in the next year 41.9 per cent; and in the third year, ending June 30, 1924, 63.0 per cent. In other words, the effect of this law was to encourage a large fraction of the total number of immigrants to enter just prior to the mid-winter slump in employment (see Chart 54). The revision of the quota act in 1924, which limited to ten per cent of its annual quota the number admissible from a given country in one month, again changed the seasonal distribution. This ten- per cent provision tends to distribute immigration somewhat evenly throughout the year, especially from July to April, inclusive; but the distribution is still without regard to seasonal fluctuations in employment. Under this law approximately as many or more immigrants will be admitted in the months of November and De- cember, when employment is declining, as in April and May when the demand for workers is increasing. CHAPTER SUMMARY Pre-war immigration and emigration each evidence a characteristic seasonal variation. Immigration, particularly of those classes which are most likely to furnish recruits to the ranks of the workers, has, in the pre-restriction period, a marked peak of activity in March, April, and May. Emigration on the other hand, is at a maximum in the closing months of the year. Consequently net migration shows a large excess of arrivals in the second quarter of the year, a secondary peak in the early fall, and a marked decline in November and December. In fact, a net outgo of alien males occurs in Decem- ber. Upon comparison with the seasonal fluctuations in those industries which are the primary employers of immigrant labor, we find that there are considerable differences in the degree to which the seasonal variation in migration and in employment is synchronous. The agreement is poor for bituminous coal mining, fair for anthracite coal mining and factory employment, and still better for the selected outdoor industries, namely construction and railway maintenance. A comparison by months between net male arrivals and estimates of the typical month-to-month changes in the number of persons employed in the selected industries does not yield unequivocal evidence as to whether migration aggravates or lessens seasonal unemployment. It appears that, on the average, in three of the 293

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