Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter X. Summary

Collection:: Economics Books

4 MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES arate chapters which it is impracticable to repeat here in detail but to which some weight must be given in interpreting the signi- ficance of the tendencies here set forth. However, the various irregularities and exceptions which have been noted are by no means adequate to impair seriously the validity of the general conclusion that there is a close relation between cyclical and seasonal fluctua- tions in employment and the corresponding ar in migration. That this correspondence is more than a mere coincidence is suggested by the fact that, particularly for the cyclical fluctuations, there are a priori reasons for expecting that migration would be sensitive to employment conditions, and also by the further fact that when the migratory currents are separated into their several elements, it is found that it is just those elements which one would expect to be swayed in their choice of the particular time of arrival and departure by variations in the prospect of employment which do show, in fact, the closest correlation with employment conditions. The movements of those immigrants who have no gainful occupation are decidedly less responsive than the movements of the working element to cyclical and seasonal variations in employment. Significant Differences in Cycles of Employment and Migration. A close scrutiny of the cyclical movements of employment and migration reveals the fact that despite the general similarity in the appearance of the curves representing these series, there are also noteworthy differences. First, there are irregular fluctuations in immigration which cannot be readily explained merely by reference to the course of industrial activity. The relatively slight amount of immigration during the industrial activity of the war period affords an obvious example. In the second place, even where the fluctuations of the several series are obviously interrelated, there are differences in the time at which the changes occur, in their relative violence, and in the number of persons directly affected. A recognition of these dif- ferences is essential to a clear understanding of the problem. Frequently the turns in the migration movement lag behind the corresponding change in employment, indicating that the passage of some time is required before the full effect of a change in employ- ment is felt upon migration. The extent of this lag varies in different cycles, and is also frequently found to vary on the downturn and the upturn of the same cycie. In a few instances the effect of a change in employment conditions 240

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