Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter III. Employment opportunities for immigrants

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES railroad constructed, partly on a calendar year and partly on a fiscal year basis, are available throughout the period covered by Charts 6 and 7 (1870-1923) ; but the best of the construction indices, the volume of building covered by contracts awarded, is available only beginning in 1910 and has changed somewhat in scope during this period. However, an estimate of the annual total value of construction is given in Chart 6 as a rough index of employment conditions in the construction industry. The Fiscal Year Group. To aid in the identification of boom and depression periods when data applying to fiscal years ending June 30th are considered, we have used annual statistics of the number of miles of railroad con- structed, imports of merchandise, the estimated average daily pro- duction of pig iron, the estimated average number employed in factories, and an index of business conditions compiled by Mr. Carl Snyder, of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The curve for factory employment represents an estimate based primarily upon data more fully described later in this chapter in connection with monthly estimates of employment. This curve presumably underestimates somewhat the size of the fluctuations in factory employment, in that it gives no consideration to part-time employment and, also, particularly in the earlier years, is based primarily upon data for Massachusetts, in which State industrial conditions were probably relatively stable. The mileage of railroad constructed is significant because it reflects general industrial conditions and because immigrant laborers in large numbers have been employed as laborers in such construc- tion. Method of Interpreting the Accompanying Charts (6 and 7). The several series discussed in the above paragraphs are plotted in Charts 6 and 7, which are so-called ‘‘ratio charts,” or charts with the vertical scale so proportioned that equal percentage declines between any two years are represented by equal vertical declines on the curves involved. If one curve declines ten per cent in 1900, and another series ten per cent in 1900 and also in 1904, in each of these three cases the vertical drop on the chart would be the same. In like manner, equal percentage increases are represented by equal vertical rises in the respective curves. Hence, despite the fact that the series are expressed in widely different units, it is possible, by 58

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