Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter III. Employment opportunities for immigrants

Collection:: Economics Books

. MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES the solid b'ack dots are used. For each intercensal period any dis- crepancy which appears between the index and the Census is prorated over the intervening months so that the final curve shows no sudden changes at the junctures with the Census years. After 1907, as previously noted, the annual censuses do not overlap, and it becomes necessary to estimate the December-to- January change. December-to-January Interpolations. Beginning in 1907, as we have noted, the Massachusetts Census of Industries was designed to be virtually a complete census. However, on plotting the data, it became apparent that in some years, particularly in those immediately after the abandonment of the former method of making each census cover twenty-four months, in order to make the series reasonably continuous, it would be necessary to substitute for the December-to-January change which is indicated by the raw data, an estimated percentage change. This was done for the December-to-January change of 1906-07, 1907-08, 1908-09, 1909-10, 1913-14, 1914-15, and 1918-19. For the other years since 1907, it was judged, upon the basis of a com- parison of the raw data, that no adjustments were necessary. The principle upon which these interpolations were made is that the best clew to the joint effect of the seasonal and cyclical in- fluences is found in the typical relation in the past of the December- to-January change to the changes in contiguous months. Two estimates were made for each year in question. For one, the median ratio in the years 1889-1906 between the November-to- December and the December-to-January movements was found and this ratio assumed to hold in the years for which the actual De- cember-to-January movement was not known. A similar estimate was made for the relation of the December-to-January changejto the January-to-February change. The two estimates were then aver- aged for the final estimate. For 1923 the estimate is based upon the index of employment in Massachusetts, recently inaugurated by the Massachusetts Bureau of Statistics. The final result of the Massachusetts computation is an estimate of the average number of wage earners employed in factories with a product of $500 or more, from 1889 to 1923 by months. 79

Access restriction

Copyright

fullscreen: Migration and business cycles

Monograph

Chapter

Table of contents

Download

Monograph

Chapter

This page

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation