Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter III. Employment opportunities for immigrants

Collection:: Economics Books

OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMMIGRANTS : computed. For the years 1909-1914, this index exhibited fluctua- tions considerably more violent than exhibited by the same series in 1904-1908 or by the census data in 1909 and 1914. Consequently, in order to get a consecutive series on a reasonably homogeneous basis, the fluctuations of the trade union unemployment data were scaled down in the ratio which they bore in 1914 to the fluctuations shown by the Census. Monthly Production of Pig Iron. For evidence supplementary to that afforded by our index of factory employment by months, we have used monthly statistics of pig iron production. The original figures were adjusted for seasonal variation by a method designed to make allowance for the tendency of the typical seasonal variation to change over a long period of years. The method used is developed by Dr."W. I. King in an article published in the Journal of the American Statis- tical Association.» His data, seasonally corrected, were used for the years 1905 to 1914, and together with figures obtained by similar methods for the years 1884 to 1904, were corrected for a computed trend based upon a seven-year moving average smoothed to elimin- ate minor irregularities. Small fluctuations were then ironed out by taking a three-month moving average of the indices obtained by correction for trend and seasonal variation. The results appear in Chart 14 in Chapter V. The Numerical Volume of Employment and Unemployment. Information concerning the actual number of workers represented by fluctuations in employment or unemployment is scant. We have made use, however, of two studies of this nature. The first, covering unemployment in non-agricultural occupations during the years 1902 to 1917, by months, was made by Professor Hornell Hart.: The method used, as described by Professor Hart, was to ascertain for each year and month the total number of persons normally occupied in non-agricultural pursuits, and to subtract from these normal supply figures the estimated ‘connected demand’ for labor. This “connected demand’ for labor was determined “by a synthesis of widely scattered information on employment fluctua- tions,” chiefly from various Federal and State statistical publica- 2“An Improved Method for Measuringfthe Seasonal ¥Factor,” September, 1924. “Hornell Hart, Fluctuations in Unemployment in Cities of the United States, 1902 to 1917, Studies from the Helen S. Trounstine Foundation, Volume 1, Number 2.7% | _ 75

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