Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IV. Immigration and business cycles prior to 1890

Collection:: Economics Books

IMMIGRATION PRIOR TO 1890 J either of imports or immigrants, but the long depression of the middle nineties finds a counterpart in a prolonged slump in im- migration, with only temporary recovery movements until a long upward swell begins in 1899. Suggestions of the effect of the minor business uncertainties of 1900 and 1901 are found in the slight reaction in imports in the year ending June 30, 1901, and in immigration in the year ending De- cember 31, 1901. In the depression of 1903-1904, both curves show a decline in 1904, and a strikingly close similarity in movement appears in the years 1904 to 1912, inclusive. The deep depression of 1908, fol- lowing the panic of 1907, is accompanied by a sharp decline in immigration and imports, and the minor depression of 1911 is also evident. The marked boom in immigration in 1913 is unique, in that while the second half of 1912 is marked by industrial activity and by indications of labor scarcity, it can scarcely be said that it is obvious that the degree of increase in industrial activity affords an adequate explanation of the unusual increase in immigration. The slumps in immigration during the Great War and following the depression of 1921, which areevident on Chart 10, will receive more detailed attention later. Wholesale Price Fluctuations. By linking together the indexes compiled by various investigators, an index of wholesale prices from 1820 to date was prepared, but is not shown in the charts in this chapter because upon examination it appeared that the movement of the value of merchandise imports, which includes prices as one element, affords a better basis for comparison with immigration, particularly in the early decades, and for more recent decades more directly pertinent data than either prices or imports are available in the form of production and employment statistics. The Annual Production of Pig Iron. The comparison made in the previous pages between imports and immigration is necessarily somewhat sketchy, not only because it rests merely on annual data, but also because imports are, at best, only a partially adequate measure of industrial activity. A some- what more direct measure is found in the annual production of pig iron. Ordinarily, as noted in Chapter I1I, the production of pig Q%

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