Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IV. Immigration and business cycles prior to 1890

Collection:: Economics Books

& MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES iron fluctuates in close sympathy with the volume of industrial operations and is consequently considered a good barometer of industrial activity. Monthly estimates of pig iron production are not available until in the eighties, but annual production figures are given for the years beginning with 1854 and hence afford additional evidence concerning industrial conditions in the period during and following the Civil War. CHART 11 CycLEs oF Pic Iron PropucTiON AND IMMIGRATION: 1860-1919. Unit= one standard deviation 2.0% aki T -.0 4 < RoE Yori. py o— 20} Beo-Gy ___WR-79 | BoD | [690-99 | joey [HAT sNumerical data in Tables 14 and 18. In Chart 11 we have a comparison of the cyclical fluctuations in annual pig iron production and total immigration from 1860 to 1919. On close examination it will be seen that, aside from a few striking exceptions such as the marked fall in pig iron in 1865 and in the period of the Great War, the two series exhibit approximately the same succession of peaks and troughs, but that these do not always exactly coincide in time. This observation leads us to in- quire to what extent the fluctuations in immigration lag behind the fluctuations in industrial activity. The Lag. With only annual data it is impossible to make a close computation of the extent of such lag as may exist, but it is possible to determine 4

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