Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IV. Immigration and business cycles prior to 1890

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES discussed, male immigration is of greatest significance for our purpose, and, consequently in the more detailed analysis based upon quarterly and monthly data, we have, where convenient, made use of the statistics of male immigration rather than of the totals for both sexes. Adjustment for a Variable Seasonal. In analyzing the fluctuations of quarterly male immigration, the typical seasonal element has been, so far as practicable, eliminated and the adjusted fluctuations expressed as deviations from a twenty- CHART 12 CYCLES IN QUARTERLY IMPORTS OF MERCHANDISE AND IN MALE IMMIGRATION: 1868-1889 Adjusted for typical seasonal variation Unit= one standard deviation +2.0- i of 5) of 1.0 a J oligo, oe | s. FEEEIEES EEE BE ei [a Fo 185 «Numerical data in Table 19. eight quarter moving average. In thus correcting for seasonal variation, allowance was made for a seasonal influence which varies at different stages in the cycle, in order to conform to the fact, revealed by examination of the raw data, that the seasonal fluctua- tion experiences somewhat regularly a damping down in the de- pression period of each cycle. In other words, the seasonal is itself subject to a cyclical variation. Inasmuch as during most of the period prior to 1890 quarterly figures on production or employment are not available, we have used quarterly statistics of merchandise imports as a rough measure of industrial activity in the years 1868 to 1889. The import figures, like the immigration data, have been adjusted for a changing normal seasonal variation and expressed as deviations from a twenty-eight quarter moving average. 0B

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