Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IV. Immigration and business cycles prior to 1890

Collection:: Economics Books

IMMIGRATION PRIOR TO 1890 General Similarity. The cyclical curves for quarterly imports of men and of mer- chandise, exhibited in Chart 12, reveal marked similarities in their major swings. Both show a marked boom in the early seventies, TABLE 19.—CvyCLES IN MALE IMMIGRATION AND IMPORTS OF MERCHANDISE, BY QUARTERS, 1868-1889 Percentage deviations from trend, corrected for seasonal variation and expressed in terms of the standard deviations (29.77 per cent for male immigration and 12.05 per cent for imports). MALE IMMIGRATION MERCHANDISE IMPORTS YEAR QUARTER ENDING QUARTER ENDING i MAR. JUNE | Seer. Dec. Mar. ' June | Seer. DE. 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 1868 —0.24 —0.59 40.10 —0.11 | —1.21 —1.31 —1.00 —1.20 1869 +0.21 40.42 40.47 40.70 | —0.27 —0.17 —0.90 —0.80 1870 +0.50 + +0.14 —0.05 —0.69 | —0.88 —0.76 —0.44 —0.04 1871 —0.89 —0.35 —0.10 +0.56 | 40.66 +0.61 41.05 +1.24 1872 +1.13 +0.64 +0.57 +1.04 +1.24 +2.32 +2.20 +1.43 1873 +1.42 +1.98 +0.28 +0.30, +1.82 +0.75 -+0.80 —0.15 1874 —0.40 40.29 —0.50 —0.57 | +0.47 40.38 +0.11 40.26 1875 —0.42 —0.43 —0.92 —1.03 | +0.04 —0.43 —0.42 —0.56 1876 —0.47 —0.69 —1.11 —1.21 1 —0.48 —1.64 —1.78 —1.10 1877 —1.32 —1.36 —1.62 —1.691 —0.74 —0.10 —0.85 —0.53 1878 —1.59 —1.79 —1.50 —1.63 —1.76 —1.96 —1.30 —1.06 1879 —1.79 —1.77 —0.60 +40.351 —1.78 —1.78 —0.73 +1.56 1880 40.86 +0.53 +2.20 +1.39 | +1.78 42.24 40.92 40.34 1881 +0.79 —1.12 +1.76 42.14" —0.17 +4+0.53 +0.73 +1.39 1882 +2.81 +1.76 +0.74 +0.04 + +1.23 +1.48 +1.71 +1.07 1883 +0.13 40.44 —0.38 —0.13 -+0.32 +0.22 —0.01 40.41 1884 | +0.07 —0.24 —0.85 —1.12 | 40.09 —0.49 —0.47 —1.22 1885 —1.21 —0.92 —1.31' —1.41 | —1.68 —1.46 —0.87 —0.43 1886 —0.86 —0.78 +0.02 +4+0.23 + —0.44 —0.44 +0.09 —0.11 1887 +0 62 +0.48 +0.83 40.53 —0.07 +0.27 -+0.31 —0.02 L888 +078 +0.79 +0.28 —0.46 +0.26 —0.06 —0.29 —0.08 1889 " —0.69 —0.65 —0.36 + —0.38 + +0.18 +0.16 -+0.19 —0.20 sComputed from quarterly statistics of male immigrants in Table I of appendix, and from statistics of imports published by the U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce in the Monthly Summary of Commerce and Finance. For methods of adjusting for seasonal variation and trend, see Chapter IV. followed by a long decline; another boom in 1880, followed by a short recession and a new peak in 1882; then a decline to a low in 1885 and a recovery in the late eighties. The import recovery in 1877, however, finds no comparable movement in immigration. " g 7

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