Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IV. Immigration and business cycles prior to 1890

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES The Lag. The movements in quarterly male immigration and merchandise imports are not, however, exactly coincident. From 1869 to 1873 immigration clearly lags from two to four quarters behind the turns in imports. The lag, if any, in the depression of the seventies is not obvious; and thereafter, while evident at times, does not appear to be so great as in the first part of the period, ranging from no lag in the short depression of 1881 to about three quarters in the depression of 1885. CHAPTER SUMMARY In this chapter we have first taken a bird's-eye view of the relation of immigration to industrial activity by comparing the annual statistics of immigration with those for imports of mer- chandise over the entire century beginning in 1820, and with the annual production of pig iron in the period beginning with 1860. From these comparisons it is clear that, particularly after the Civil War, the cyclical fluctuations in immigration are to a large extent a reflex of industrial conditions in the United States, the effect upon immigration evidently becoming apparent in something less than a year. Then we have subjected the period from 1868 to 1889 to a some- what more detailed scrutiny by comparing quarterly cycles of male immigration and imports of merchandise, both corrected for their typical seasonal variations. This comparison strengthens our pre- liminary conclusions based upon annual data, and indicates a lag in the effect of industrial conditions upon immigration of from two to four quarters in the early part of the period and a somewhat shorter lag in the latter part of the period. In the following chapter we turn our attention to an examination of the more detailed data available for the years following 1889. QL

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