Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES ployment in one or more states which are notable immigrant centers. Monthly statistics of immigration, classified by country of origin beginning in July, 1888, and by sex from July, 1892, are available; and toward the end of the pre-war period the monthly immigration statistics become more and more detailed, so that for the last five or six years of the period they are available by race, country of origin, occupation, and other bases of classification. Also, beginning in July, 1907, monthly statistics of emigration were published, so that it becomes possible thereafter to give a relatively complete picture of the net movement of migration. With its relative abundance of immigration statistics, accom- panied by reasonably adequate measures of industrial activity and with little in the way of war or legal restriction to interfere with the free interplay’ of industrial forces and immigration, the quarter century from 1890 to 1914 affords an exceptional oppor- tunity for the analysis of these phenomena. Method of Analysis. The approach in this chapter is, first, by comparisons over the entire quarter century between the cyclical fluctuations in the monthly statistics of male immigration on the one hand and pig iron production and factory employment on the other. Then, to facilitate the study of certain significant details which are apt to be unduly subordinated in comparisons covering as long a period as a quarter century, and particularly to make possible the satisfactory analysis of emigration series which are not available prior to July, 1907, the entire period from 1890 to 1914 has been broken up into shorter segments, each of which includes at least one major or minor industrial depression and one or two years of the preceding period of prosperity and of the succeeding period of recovery. These selected depression periods are: the severe depression of 1894, the depression of 1904, the major depression of 1908, the minor depression of 1911, and the decline beginning in 1913. This concentration upon short periods facilitates the focusing of attention upon certain details in the reaction of migration to em- ployment which are apt to be overlooked in the more inclusive picture. In the last three of these short periods we introduce com- parisons with emigration and with the net results of immigration and emigration. The analysis, however, of the movement of various separate elements in the immigrant current, such as studies by race or occupation, is largely postponed to a subsequent chapter. 00

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