Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

THE PRE-WAR QUARTER CENTURY As will be noted more in detail in connection with the immediate discussion of each period, the method of analysis differs somewhat from period to period in order to make the most profitable use of data available. QUARTER-CENTURY COMPARISONS In Chart 13 we have depicted the fluctuations of male immigration and factory employment. Both series represent deviations from computed trends with the normal seasonal movement eliminated, and hence represent the cyclical fluctuations to the extent that these can be statistically isolated. In plotting these curves the scale unit for each curve is the typical measure of its fluctuations, or the standard deviation, so that the curves are brought into convenient form for comparison of the timing of the cyclical flue- tuations. It should be remembered, however, in interpreting these curves, that the method used conceals the fact that the fluctuations in the migration curve are relatively more violent. An approximate measure of the relative violence of fluctuation of the two series is found in their average deviations from trend, which are, respectively, 24.74 per cent for male immigration and 3.40 for employment. Immigration Fluctuations Lag Behind Employment Changes. These series and others subsequently discussed have been examined for the degree of consistency in their timing by two methods. In the first place a graphic comparison was made by plotting the curves on separate sheets and superimposing them over an illum- inated chartbox with varying degrees of lag assigned to the migration curve. Then, in significant cases, coefficients of correlation have been calculated as one means of testing the conclusions reached from the graphic comparisons. It is quite obvious upon a brief examination of Chart 13 that in general contour the fluctuations of male immigration and factory employment bear a marked resemblance. Both show a decided depression in 1894, a checkered recovery through the late nineties, a mild depression in 1904, a boom in 1906 and 1907, followed by the severe depression of 1908, a new high in early 1910, and a sharp decline in 1914. . There are also a few striking differences which challenge attention. The sharp drop in immigration in the latter part of 1892, a tem- porary crest in the latter part of 1904 and the first months of 1905, 01

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