Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

. MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES the course of the employment curve. A drop in the pig iron curve in 1892 suggests a recession in industrial activity which may account for the immigration slump later in that year; also, pig iron produc- tion shows a decline in 1911 which harmonizes well with the migra- tion slump in that year. In some respects pig iron production is a better index of em- ployment opportunity than our index of factory employment. Iron is basic to many industries, including, for example, building construction, for which we have no adequate direct statistics of CHART 14 CycricaL FructuaTioNs IN MALE IMMIGRATION AND Pia Iron PropucTioN: 1890-1914. Three-month moving averages of deviations from trend, corrected for seasonal variation. Unit=one standard deviation 0 EAT J 20} or 9 0 10 ; ol SOB 1/05 48s ve 553 1661/57 TRE 5091/0000 0 100 1500 0 owe 360: + 115001 90s (5 ers 0 | «The numerical data for the male immigration curve are in Appendix Table IIT; the pig iron curve represents a three-month moving average of the data in Appendix Table VI, expressed in multiples of their standard deviation, 17.13 per cent. employment. It also has a wider geographic scope than the em- ployment index. The evidence, therefore, of similarities to the pig iron curve should strengthen the conclusion previously reached to the effect that male immigration fluctuates in rather close sym- pathy with employment, but lags somewhat, though apparently only two to four months. Clearings index. Co A comparison was also made between male immigration and an index of business prepared by Mr. Carl Snyder of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.: This index is based on bank clearings outside of New York deflated by a general index of prices designed sJournal of the American Statistical Association, September, 1924, p. 335. 04

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