An Introduction to the theory of statistics

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1751730271

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-127610

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Yule, George Udny http://d-nb.info/gnd/12910504X

Title:: An Introduction to the theory of statistics

Edition:: 8. ed. rev

Place of publication:: London

Publisher:: Griffin

Year of publication:: 1927

Scope:: XV, 422 S; Ill., Diagr

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Part II. The theory of variables

Collection:: Economics Books

194 THEORY OF STATISTICS. at the census of 1891, and are not available for earlier years. Some trial was made of rateable value per head, but with not very satisfactory results. For any given year, and for a group of unions of somewhat similar character, e.g. rural, the rateable value per head appears to be highly (negatively) correlated with the pauperism, but changes in the two are not very highly correlated : probably the movements of assessments are sluggish and irregular, especially in the case of falling assessments in rural unions, and do not correspond at all accurately with the real changes in the value of agricultural land. After some consideration, it was decided to use a very simple index to the changing fortunes of a district, viz. the movement of the population itself. If the population of a district is increasing at a rate above the average, this is primd facie evidence that its industries are prospering ; if the population is decreasing, or not increasing as fast as the average, this strongly suggests that the industries are suffering from a temporary lack of prosperity or permanent decay. The population of every union was therefore tabulated for the censuses of 1871, 1881, 1891. 7. Age Distribution.—As already stated, the figures that are known clearly indicate a very rapid rise of the percentage relieved after 65 years of age. The percentage of the population over 65 years of age was therefore worked out for every union and tabu- lated from the same three censuses. This is not, of course, at all a complete index to the composition of the population as affecting the rate of pauperism, which is sensibly dependent on the proportion of the two sexes, and the numbers of children as well. As the percentage in receipt of relief was, however, 20 per cent. for those over 65, and only 1-2 per cent. for those under that age, it is evidently a most important index. (A more complete method might have been used by correcting the observed rate of pauperism to the basis of a standard population with given num- bers of each age and sex. (Cf. below, Chap. XI. pp. 223-25.) 8. The changes in each of the four quantities that had been tabulated for every union were then measured by working out the ratios for the intercensal decades 1871-81 and 1881-91, taking the value in the earlier year as 100 in each case. The percentage ratios so obtained were taken as the four variables. Further, as the conditions are and were very different for rural and for urban unions, it seemed very desirable to separate the unions into groups according to their character. But this cannot be done with any exactness: the majority of unions are of a mixed character, con- sisting, say, of a small town with a considerable extent of the surrounding country. It might seem best to base the classification on returns of occupations, e.g. the proportions of the population

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