An Introduction to the theory of statistics

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1751730271

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-127610

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Yule, George Udny http://d-nb.info/gnd/12910504X

Title:: An Introduction to the theory of statistics

Edition:: 8. ed. rev

Place of publication:: London

Publisher:: Griffin

Year of publication:: 1927

Scope:: XV, 422 S; Ill., Diagr

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Part II. The theory of variables

Collection:: Economics Books

X.—CORRELATION : ILLUSTRATIONS AND METHODS. 201 tion of the marriage-rate in any one year with the deviation of the exports and imports of the year before, or two years before, instead of the same year; if a sufficient number of years be taken, an estimate may be made, by interpolation, of the time- difference that would make the correlation a maximum if it were possible to obtain the figures for exports and imports for periods other than calendar years. Thus Mr Hooker finds (ref. 5) that on an average of the years 1861-95 the correlation would be a maximum between the marriage-rate and the foreign trade of about one-third of a year earlier. The method is an extremely useful one, and is obviously applicable to any similar case. The 2) | $ ‘ 1860 65 os 7 Ce 85 90 95 Fic. 43.—Fluctuations in (1) Marriage-rate and (2) Foreign Trade (Exports + Imports per head) in England and Wales : the Curves show Deviations from 9-year means. Data of R. H. Hooker, Jour. Roy. Stat. Soc., 1901. student should refer to the paper by Mr Hooker, cited. Reference may also be made to ref. 10, in which several diagrams are given similar to fig. 43, and the nature of the relationship between the marriage-rate and such factors as trade, unemployment, ete., is discussed, it being suggested that the relation is even more complex than appears from the above. The same method of separating the short-period oscillations was used at an earlier date by Poynting in ref. 16, to which the student is referred for a discussion of the method. 18. It was briefly mentioned in § 9 of the last chapter that the treatment of cases when the regression was non-linear was, in general, somewhat difficult. Such cases lie strictly outside the scope of the present volume, but it may be pointed out that if a relation between X and ¥ be suggested, either by

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