International trade

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1758394757

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-136209

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Taussig, Frank William http://d-nb.info/gnd/120199459

Title:: International trade

Place of publication:: New York, NY

Publisher:: Macmillan

Year of publication:: 1927

Scope:: XXI, 425 Seiten; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Part II. Problems of verification

Collection:: Economics Books

240 INTERNATIONAL TRADE uneven stages by which the outgoing loans proceed are evidently related to the stages of the business cycle. We know much more of this matter than was known twenty years ago; yet it is only about the recent cycles that we possess the more detailed knowledge and the better understanding. The sequence and the interde- pendence of the several stages in the earlier days may have been different. We know, too, more about the course of prices during recent decades than we knew about prices in preceding times. It is only of late that attention has been paid to the possibility, nay the probability, of divergent movements in import prices, export prices, domestic prices. Price indices usually are given for a single lumped aggregate of all goods; whereas for the problem of international trade series of separate indices are needed for the different classes — domestic goods on the one hand, international goods on the other. We do not know what degree of verification of our theoretic reasoning would be found if the needed informa- tion were at hand — indeed, whether any verification at all would appear, or only the uncovering of new perplexities. The difficulties of verification become manifest when one com- pares what we know about the movements of prices and incomes with those that might be expected on theoretic grounds. What we might expect prima facie is a general tendency to falling money incomes and falling prices during the early stage, that of capital export, running to the middle of the 19th century. Thereafter, a reversed movement might be expected: rising money incomes and rising domestic prices, with falling prices of imports. What we find in fact is thus summarized by Professor Bowley,! an observer whose competence is not to be questioned : “From 1775 to 1815 prices rose, but incomes rose still more. From 1820 to 1851 prices fell 35 per cent, while incomes remained nearly steady. From 1851 to 1873 prices rose 50 per cent, but incomes rose 60 per cent. From 1873 to 1895 prices fell 45 per cent, while incomes fell, but rose again to the 1873 level. From 1895 to 1901 prices rose 12 per cent, but income rose 15 per cent.” England’s Foreign Trade in the 19th Century, 2nd edition, p. 106.

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