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Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1782637850

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-178813

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Westergaard, Harald http://d-nb.info/gnd/117574163; Nybølle, Hans Cl. http://d-nb.info/gnd/127386696

Title:: Grundzüge der Theorie der Statistik

Edition:: 2., völlig umgearb. Aufl.

Place of publication:: Jena

Publisher:: G. Fischer

Year of publication:: 1928

Scope:: 640 Seiten

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

16 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 statistical method to handle a certain economic theory? Or does he mean that he is talking about methods of constructing a certain kind of theory? I think many of us consider the construction of an economic theory, including the specification of stochastic elements in the theory, as one thing, and to confront it with the facts as something different. If we have constructed a stochastic economic ‘heory based on certain principles of economic behaviour, we have a model which can be interpreted as an indirect specification of the joint probability law of the observable economic variables. From such a model we may derive various kinds of « relations », expected values, and other kinds of statements concerning the properties of ‘his joint probability law. It is perhaps unfortunate that we talk about relations between economic variables, when actually we should regard our economic theories as just indirect ways of saying someth- ing about the probabilistic aspect of the variables we are talking about. What do we actually mean when we say that a model or theory fits the facts? Do we mean that it fits the facts as these will be if the economy is not disturbed by changes in economic policy? Or do we mean that the model would fit the facts as these would be after a new kind of policy? The meaning may be one or the other, depending on what we are after. Moreover, a model that fits the facts in the first sense may often be used as a basis for extract- ing information concerning a model that fits the facts in the second sense, Some of the parameters to be estimated may be the same in ooth cases. But ultimately, we may not be so much interested in ‘he joint probability law of the economic variables as it has been in a past period, our final interest may be related to a future joint probability law which has been modified by certain economic-po- litical actions. From this I think we may draw two conclusions, first that it is extremely important to specify the economic meaning of a theory or relation and, secondly, that closeness of fit for forec- asting purposes is by no means a decisive feature of a « good » eco- nomic theory. 2] Wold - pag. 62

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