The stock market crash - and after

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1815583320

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-204544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Fisher, Irving http://d-nb.info/gnd/118533541

Title:: The stock market crash - and after

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: Macmillan

Year of publication:: 1930

Scope:: XXVI, 286 S.; graph. Darst

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Introduction

Collection:: Economics Books

xvi Introduction prices.” But I did not at that time believe that there would be anything in the nature of a serious crash. I had said, in an article published in many news- papers, May 12, 1929, that the so-called “Hoover boom” in the stock market had about reached its climax. The “Hoover market” had risen above the forecast line, calculated by the Karsten Statistical Laboratories in New Haven, by from 12 to 25 per cent from the time of Mr. Hoover's election to his taking of the oath of office on March 4th, after which, up to the close of April, it receded to 18 per cent above the line. In this article I remarked that all previous departures from the Karsten so-called “line of fundamentals” had returned within a short period to this forecast line, and added: “The ‘Hoover Market’ can hardly go much fur- ther above the forecast line. It may fall below, but in that case it will fall to a higher level than the peaks of the previous booms.” This opinion was fulfilled. As the Karsten chart shows (with the white zone bounding the recorded average of the market each month) the continuous forecast line, based on previous records of various items of business conditions, represents with fair accuracy the long swings of the market. The depar- tures from the line, up or down, represent the “psy- chological” short swings, as shown on the accom- panying chart. These characterized the collapse of the stock market at the onset of the war in 1914; the war boom of 1915-1916; the marked depression of 1917, during the period of Federal financing

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