Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: The role of capital in economic development / Maurice Allais, Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mines Paris - France

Collection:: Economics Books

080 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 test performed by Arrais. I can well understand that one cannot rest much on an argument such as this one, since these numbers are very rough and are subject to substantial errors of measure- ment. Indeed, as ALLAIS has shown, even plausible errors of measurement can lead to this result. On the other hand, I am anable to understand why these numbers are appropriate for ALLAIS to use and not appropriate for me to criticize. Professor ALLAIS .nsists upon saying that everything goes according to his model. In fact, this does not go according to his model, and while that may be the result of measurement error, it may equally not be. It s, of course, all too common for an investigator to claim that num- ders which apparently point opposite to his theory are subject to measurement error. Professor ArLals, however, is managing to do more than that. First he puts forth these numbers as supporting his theory; then, when I point out that in fact they do not support it, he claims that is due to measurement error; finally, he claims that n fact they do support it. Professor ALLAIS is working both sides of the street here and I am afraid I cannot understand his somewhat engthy argument on this point. ALLAIS First, in my opinion it is impossible to attach any importance to these slight differences because the precision of the different estimates is quite small and it is difficult to derive any conclusion from small deviations which are probably of a random character. For instance, if you consider the 58 Corin CLARK figures for 21 countries cited by me in Table V, p. 54 of my Tokyo paper (ALLAIS, 1960 A), the range for y is quite large, from 0.83 to 8.48. The median is 3.54 and the coefficient of variation about it is 22%. If you consider each of the 58 figures, this is certainly wrong and only the median of the lognormal distribution has any real meaning. 11] Allais - pag. 284

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