Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

1162 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 gional demand or of continuing to import substantial quantities of food. The first alternative appears to imply a substantial increase in the cost of food, while the second alternative has important implications to a number of exporters of farm pro- ducts. The first alternative implies a protectionist policy while the second alternative would permit the region to realize signifi- cant gains from international trade and specialization. ITI. A REVIEW OF SOME AGRICULTURAL PROJECTIONS A governmental plan or policy depends upon projections of future events. Plans by private firms and individuals ob- viously require projections of the same general kind, though the degree of detail required may be substantially less. There are, of course, significant differences in some of the effects of errors in projections or forecasts when made by governments and private individuals. For one thing, errors made by private individuals may be offsetting. For another thing, errors made by private individuals may bring into play forces to correct the error, such as a decline or increase in market price, while a government price policy, subject to rather more slowly func- tioning political processes, may compound the consequences of projection errors. This will happen (and has) if a farm product price is established at a high level which results in attracting additional resources into the production of the product and the bidding up of the price of certain resources. In order to avoid economic distress to resources engaged in the production of the product, prices may not only be maintained at the pre- vious level but may be increased in order to provide a satisfac- tory income to the overexpanded sector of the economy. In this part of my paper I shall review agricultural projec- tions for the United States and agricultural goals for the Soviet 16] Johnson - pag. 22

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