Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

1176 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 7 The thirties was a period of adversity on agriculture — drought, low prices, low incomes — yet output increased more than during the 1910-19 period and almost as much as during the twenties. Then during the forties output increased almost as much as during the two previous decades. While the growth of output was smaller during the fifties than during the forties, the growth was greater than in any of the first three decades included in the tabulation and despite certain efforts to restrict production. The same kind of seeming discontinuity in output growth can be illustrated by changes in output in the Soviet Union. Between 1953 and 1958 the official index of gross agricultural output increased by 49% (!). This was an annual compound rate of growth slightly larger than 8%. Between 1958 and 1962 gross output increased by approximately #9, or at a rate of less than 29, annually. While most Western observers did not expect the growth rate achieved between 1953 and 1958 to be maintained, I do not believe that there was any one who predicted a growth rate as low as the actual one. Mr. ARCADIUS KAHAN and I predicted that output might in- crease by about 24% between 1058 and 1965 or at an annual rate of about 3%. Our projection should be compared with “he increase of 70% indicated by the Seven Year Plan. Ex post we can say a great deal, both for the United States and the Soviet Union, as to why there have been such changes in the rate of growth. But in making projections we are still not in a position to do very much in the way of predicting changes in methods of production or the effects of changes in incentives. For example, not all of the differences in views concerning the effects of the output price level on production in the Common Market or in the United States are due to self interest or political views: a large part of the differences exist (') I do not believe that the official output data for 1958 and 1953 are strictly comparable, but the relative overestimation of output in 1958 is not so great as to negate the point made in the text ‘161 Johnson - pag. 36

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