Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

5 tn SEMAINE D'ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 117] - € hd © o 3 2 € = … L SR y rn ; Qs . o Z + year — the performance for the first four years can be com- pared with what would have been required if the goals were to be achieved. This is done in Table 8 by assuming that the output path between 1958 and 1965 was to have been linear Mh. For the four years ending in 1962 the annual increase in gross agricultural output was only 18% as large as that re- quired to achieve the 1965 goal. Of the ten commodity groups, there were two with output declines. For the other eight, the ratio of the actual to the planned increase ranged from 21 to 93%, with only one of the ratios being in excess of 50%. For the commodity with the highest ratio of actual to planned increase — sunflowers — the planned increase for the period was only seven per -cent. The record of output performance of Soviet agriculture is somewhat better than that indicated by the estimated seven per cent increase in output between 1958 and 1962. In 1958 climatic conditions were very favorable and agricultural output was probably five per cent greater than it would have been under average climatic conditions. However, in the published discussions of the Seven Year Plan I have seen no evidence that the effect of the favorable conditions in 1958 was taken into account in establishing the 1965 goals. I suspect that the modest increase in planned output for sunflowers and other oil-bearing seeds reflected the high 1958 yields, but I have seen no place where this was recognized. A brief comment concerning the decline in sugar beet output between 1958 and 1962 may be in order. There is little doubt that the output of sugar beets for refining could have been larger in 1962 than it was. The sugar beet goal for 1965 ap- pears to be an instance where the goal was set too high in terms mn | |! 3 > } A Pas , wud 'S N 2 mn oO O) © ss [= - of EE 14 [ EX) Ls = ; — — oO pas — © 3 NN (') According to data presented in a speech by N.S. Krushchev (« Pravda », March 5, 1962) it appears that the annual goals for agricultural products for 1958-65 are approximately linear interpolations of the 1958 output and the 1965 goal. For two examples given — grain and milk — almost exact linear interpolation was involved; for the third example — meat — output was supposed to have increased at a greater absolute amount in earlier than in later vears <> < M n N L N co 10] Johnson - pag. 3: y N CI — —5 C = £ ~ = 3 Ë - ê < § a’ Si <

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