SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 1165 
pulation, employment, GNP, and per capita income for the 
projections with comparisons with actual data for 1960. 
The 1948 study underestimated 1960 population by 22 mil- 
lion or 12%. The relative error in the estimate of the labor 
force was much smaller, though still very substantial since 
all persons in the labor force in 1960 were alive in 1047 (the 
last year of available data for the 1948 study). Gross national 
product was underestimated by about 20%, though GNP per 
capita was in error by only 89%. 
The 1956 study projections for 1960 were remarkably ac- 
curate for the underlying data on population, labor force, total 
and per capita gross national product. This study covered a 
period of approximately seven years since few, if any, data 
were used for any year after 1953. 
Projections of per capita consumption of a number of agri- 
cultural commodities are compared with the actual consumption 
in 1960 in Table 5. The 1948 study had quite accurate projec- 
tions for total meats, potatoes, and sweetpotatoes, and fats and 
oils. The difference between projection and actual was substan- 
tial for lard, poultry, eggs, total milk, wheat, and cotton. The 
differences between the 1956 study projections and actuals were 
not as great as in the former study, but were still substantial 
for certain individual commodities — beef, veal, turkeys, eggs, 
milk, and cotton. 
Table 6 presents comparisons between projections and 
actual yields. The 1948 study projects yields for 1965; the 
1956 study was only for demand. In Table 6 I have included 
projections from several other studies in addition to the 1948 
study. These include projections for 1950 which were pub- 
lished in 1945, a U.S. Department of Agriculture projection 
for 1965 published in 1961, the Paley Commission projections 
for 1975, and U.S. Department of Agriculture projections for 
1975. Actual yields are given in the table for two three-year 
periods - 1954-56 and 1960-62. 
The ~~ vield projections from the 1948 study were 
[15] Johnson - pag. 25