THE UNITED STATES, II. 1900-1914 305 
ascribable to causes of this kind, did appear in special degree dur- 
ing the years (after 1900) when remittances to foreign countries 
increased in special degree. One may fairly contend that it did. 
True, the protective system was little more stringent then than it 
had been before; the changes in the tariff acts of 1897 and 1909 
made no great general advances in the rates. But the system had 
had more time in which to work out its effects. And the element 
of time is quite as important here as in other parts of the field of 
international trade, or in the economic field at large. The tariff 
system led to the growth of the protected American industries by 
gradual stages, and was cumulative in its effects. It was in the 
later stages that the full effects appeared, both as regards the 
industries that still remained dependent on protection and those 
that no longer needed it. And these full effects, as they were felt 
after 1900, were to lessen the imports of large classes of goods. It 
was as if a decline in demand for European goods had set in. 
There are still other possibilities. Is it to be assumed without 
further ado that the conditions of demand for the exports remained 
unchanged thru the period, that the foreign demand schedules for 
American products continued to be the same? The increase of 
exports from the United States which we have noted was accom- 
panied by a change in their character. Not only did they increase 
in money value; their make-up changed. The proportion of food 
products, while varying greatly from year to year according to crop 
conditions, on the whole became less. Cotton retained a dominat- 
ing position; copper and oil became more important. Most 
noticeable of all was the larger part played by manufactured 
goods of various kinds. Thus in the character of the demand 
by other countries for the exports, as well as in that of American 
demand for the imports, the conditions may be regarded as having 
tended to make the terms of trade more favorable to the United 
States, or rather to have prevented them from becoming less 
favorable. 
A change in demand is the most elusive among the factors which 
act on the terms of trade. Other factors, such as tourist expendi- 
tures, or capital import and export, can be specifically traced.