Full text : Migration and business cycles

115 MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
being here for a permanent sojourn. The noteworthy difference in
the two sections of Chart 21 is that when nonemigrants are included
the departures of aliens were so numerous from December, 1907,
to August, 1908, inclusive, that there was practically a continuous
excess of alien departures over arrivals, suggesting that the temporary
 element in the alien population is more susceptible to changes
in employment conditions than those aliens officially classified as
immigrants.
The Depression of 1911.
The year 1910 was marked by a gradual decline into a mild depression
 in 1911, and dullness continued through the first few
months of 1912. In 1911 crops were very poor, but in 1912 they
were much better, and the industrial dullness in the early months
of that year gave way to a great activity in the latter part of the
year, accompanied by reports of labor scarcity. The depression of
1911 is not marked in the Federal Reserve Bank’s clearings index,
nor does it appear as a below-trend period in our three-state index
of factory employment, though this index does show a relatively
continuous decline from the peak in January, 1910, to the middle
of 1912. The movement is shown more distinctly as a depression
in the fluctuations of pig iron production and in the male immigration
 curve.
Net Male Alien Arrivals and Changes in the!NumberiUnemployed.
In the depression of 1911 we have an opportunity for the
first time to study the net immigration of males by months. In
Table 27 and Chart 22 we have a comparison designed to make
clear the numerical proportion between changes in the number
unemployed in non-agricultural pursuits, as estimated by Professor
Hart, and the net additions to the working population through
migration. For this purpose the number of alien male immigrants
and nonimmigrants combined, less the number of alien male emigrants
 and nonemigrants, has been taken to represent the industrially
 significant net immigration. It will be recalled that somewhat
similar comparisons have been made with the same data for twelvemonth
 periods from 1903 to 1914 (Chart 20). The present discussion
merely presents the same data in a different manner.
In the left-hand section of Chart 22 the comparison is between
the net arrivals for three-month periods and the net change in
numbers unemployed in the same three-month periods. In this

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