CHAPTER VIII
THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE
COUNTRIES OF EMIGRATION
To be comprehensive, an analysis of the cyclical aspects of mi-
gration should throw light on the relative influence of economic
conditions in the countries of emigration and of immigration. Are
fluctuations in the tide of migration due primarily to conditions at
home or in the country of destination? Does the emigrant leave at a
particular time because his status at home becomes intolerable or
because the prospects in the “promised land’ are unusually attrac-
tive?
If we had no better method of reaching a decision on this point,
we should judge from a priori reasoning that the dominant cause of
an unusual volume of emigration is most probably the attraction of
unusual opportunities in the prospective home of the emigrant rather
than the expelling force of unusually bad conditions in his former
home. Particularly is this true of a common increase in emigration
from several sources to a particular host country, especially if there
is no similar increase in emigration from these same sources to
other host countries.
An important consideration is that the passage money for many
immigrants is furnished by relatives and friends in the United States
and hence we should expect that increases in the immigration of
this group would be particularly apt to show a close correspondence
with prosperity in the United States.
On the other hand, we should expect that the time of arrival of
immigrants who finance their own passage would be less influenced
by conditions here. However, to the extent that business depres-
sions in Europe and America occur at the same time—and we shall
presently see that they are to a large degree concurrent—distress in
the country of emigration will be accompanied by unemployment
and low wages in the country of intended residence. Not only will
it be difficult for both assisted and self-financed immigrants to
obtain funds for their passage, but also the news from abroad will
be depressing and little calculated to encourage the would-be im-
migrants to tear loose from their moorings.
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