INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 181 
emigration; but where conditions in the two countries are not 
similar, the emigration movement appears to agree somewhat better 
with the index for the United States than with that for the United 
Kingdom. 
These instances where the migration movement differs from one 
business cycle curve but agrees with the other are of special interest. 
The beginning of recovery in emigration in the late seventies and 
in 1886 agrees best with the concurrent changes in the index for the 
United States. Also, in the years 1888 and 1889, and in 1894 and 
1896, the emigration curve and the United States composite, but 
not the British composite, decline. On the other hand, the decline 
in the emigration movement in 1901 and 1902 can be explained more 
plausibly by reference to economic conditions in Great Britain than 
to those in the United States, for 1902 is a boom year in the latter 
country. The emigration boom in 1904 coincides with depression 
in both countries. The recovery in emigration in 1909, despite the 
continuance of depression in the United Kingdom, evidences the 
effect of industrial recovery in the United States. 
The tentative conclusion upon the basis of the evidence presented 
in Chart 41 is, that the general movements in economic conditions 
in the United States and the United Kingdom are similar, and that 
prosperity in the two countries ordinarily means higher emigration 
from the United Kingdom to the United States; depression, lower 
emigration. When, as not infrequently happens, the cyclical changes 
in the United Kingdom come somewhat tardily as compared with 
the similar movements in the United States, the movement in 
emigration usually agrees more closely with the ups and downs of 
industry in the latter country. The emigration decline of 1902 and 
the boom of 1904 are not, however, consistent with this explanation. 
It may be suggested that by allowing a lag of one or two years we 
may find a good correspondence between depression in Great Britain 
and emigration therefrom. But upon examination of the curves for 
such possible relations, we find that with a one year lag attributed 
to emigration there is no consistent agreement, either direct or 
inverse, between British business conditions and emigration. With 
a two-year lag there is a moderate degree of inverse correlation, 
that is, a tendency for poor business conditions in Great Britain to 
be followed two years later by increased emigration to the United 
States, and for good conditions to be followed by decreased emigra- 
tion. However, for the period as a whole, this agreement is not as 
close as that found between concurrent conditions of prosperity