MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
United States and declining activity in Germany are accompanied
by increasing emigration; that the decline in 1896, unique to the
United States, is followed, somewhat tardily, by a decline in emigration
 in 1897; and that in 1902 German emigration is increasing
and industrial conditions in the United States improving, while
conditions in Germany are on the decline. * On the contrary, in
1903, emigration increased despite the beginning of industrial decline
 in the United States. We shall return presently to a closer
examination of this latter period.
Pig Iron Production.
Inasmuch as pig iron is a basic factor in manufacturing, it seems
worth while to supplement the preceding analysis with a comparison
of the relation between emigration and the production of pig iron.
Following the Franco-Prussan War and the formation of the
German Empire in 1871, the industrial activities of Germany grew
apace. Is the marked growth of the German iron and steel industry
accompanied by an increase or a decrease in emigration from
Germany? Is emigration high when the industrial machine is slowing
down or when it is running at full speed? Does the condition of the
iron industry in the United States or in Germany, as an index of
business conditions, offer the most reasonable and consistent explanation
 of fluctuations in emigration from Germany to the United
States?
The first striking fact that confronts us in analyzing the relation
of emigration and pig iron production in Germany is that the rapid
growth of the iron industry is accompanied, particularly after 1831,
by a downward trend in emigration.
In Chart 44 we have the basis for an appraisal of the relation
between cyclical fluctuations in emigration from Germany to the
United States and the condition of the iron industry in the two
countries, in so far as this is correctly represented by pig iron
production. The chart is in three sections, each representing deviations
 from seven-year moving averages. The first shows the cyclical
fluctuations of emigration from Germany to the United States
compared with pig iron production in the United States, with
vertical scales in units of the respective standard deviations of the
two series. The second section shows a similar comparison for
emigration and pig iron production in Germany. The third compares
 the two pig iron curves in terms of percentage deviations from
seven-year moving averages, and consequently does not iron out

190