MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
United States and declining activity in Germany are accompanied 
by increasing emigration; that the decline in 1896, unique to the 
United States, is followed, somewhat tardily, by a decline in emi- 
gration in 1897; and that in 1902 German emigration is increasing 
and industrial conditions in the United States improving, while 
conditions in Germany are on the decline. * On the contrary, in 
1903, emigration increased despite the beginning of industrial de- 
cline in the United States. We shall return presently to a closer 
examination of this latter period. 
Pig Iron Production. 
Inasmuch as pig iron is a basic factor in manufacturing, it seems 
worth while to supplement the preceding analysis with a comparison 
of the relation between emigration and the production of pig iron. 
Following the Franco-Prussan War and the formation of the 
German Empire in 1871, the industrial activities of Germany grew 
apace. Is the marked growth of the German iron and steel industry 
accompanied by an increase or a decrease in emigration from 
Germany? Is emigration high when the industrial machine is slowing 
down or when it is running at full speed? Does the condition of the 
iron industry in the United States or in Germany, as an index of 
business conditions, offer the most reasonable and consistent ex- 
planation of fluctuations in emigration from Germany to the United 
States? 
The first striking fact that confronts us in analyzing the relation 
of emigration and pig iron production in Germany is that the rapid 
growth of the iron industry is accompanied, particularly after 1831, 
by a downward trend in emigration. 
In Chart 44 we have the basis for an appraisal of the relation 
between cyclical fluctuations in emigration from Germany to the 
United States and the condition of the iron industry in the two 
countries, in so far as this is correctly represented by pig iron 
production. The chart is in three sections, each representing devia- 
tions from seven-year moving averages. The first shows the cyclical 
fluctuations of emigration from Germany to the United States 
compared with pig iron production in the United States, with 
vertical scales in units of the respective standard deviations of the 
two series. The second section shows a similar comparison for 
emigration and pig iron production in Germany. The third com- 
pares the two pig iron curves in terms of percentage deviations from 
seven-year moving averages, and consequently does not iron out 
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