Full text: Migration and business cycles

25% MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
“all selected” industries is presented for ‘selected outdoor” in- 
dustries. Not all of net male migration, of course, goes into these 
industries, but large numbers of the recent immigrants are employed 
therein, particularly in pick and shovel work. 
Using the same method of interpretation applied to “all selected” 
industries, and assuming, for purposes of comparison, that the 
entire volume of net migration is absorbed irl these outdoor indus- 
tries, it would appear that in December a small excess in departures 
probably lessens slightly a tendency toward increasing unemploy- 
ment; in six months—March to August, inclusive—the increase in 
employment 1s greater than the net number of male arrivals and 
hence male migration in these months is either alleviating a shortage 
of labor, or if such shortage does not exist, is merely slowing up the 
decrease in unemployment which would otherwise arise from in- 
creasing activity in these outdoor industries. In February the 
number of net arrivals is greater than the increase in employment; 
and in four months—January, September, October, and November— 
employment is decreasing while arrivals exceed departures, though 
in January and November the excess of arrivals is not enough to be 
of appreciable significance. 
On the whole, the evidence favors the conclusion that in the 
months from March to August, inclusive, the seasonal distribution 
of net male arrivals is well adjusted to the changes in employment 
due to activities in construction and railway maintenance; that in 
January, November, and December the net movement is too small 
to be of great significance; and that in February, September, and 
October the new arrivals must look largely to other industries for 
employment. 
SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN IMMIGRATION UNDER THE 
QUOTA ACTS 
The preceding discussion has referred, in the main, to the relation 
between the seasonal movements in migration and employment 
prior to the Great War. The quota acts of 1921 and 1924 caused 
material modifications in the seasonal distribution of immigration. 
The act of 1921 permitted up to twenty per cent of the annual 
quota to enter in any one month. As the immigration year begins 
July 1st, the effect of this provision was to concentrate the heaviest 
immigration in the months from July to November, inclusive. In 
the first year of the operation of the act, beginning July 1, 1921, 
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